Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4e9…8ae4 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (855 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-7%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%36W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day855.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$318
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (855 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -16.2% -24.2% 48% 36% -21.4%
≤30d 75 -16.2% -24.2% 48% 36% -21.4%
≤90d 75 -16.2% -24.2% 48% 36% -21.4%
all 75 -16.2% -24.2% 48% 36% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover855.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 36% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 17% -29.0%
15% -38.1% 15% -35.8%
20% -44.1% 12% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses36 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day855.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$44 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $66 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$25 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$38 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$5 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $84 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$9 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$84 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$30 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $108 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$39 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$26 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$14 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 908 history records