Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb4e9…076a sports 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,019 (+1%) realized +$786 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate75%224W / 76L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$465est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$50
14 days+$644
30 days+$1,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$678
other 1% +$94
culture 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.1% -14.2% 59% 53% -11.8%
≤30d 118 +6.7% -3.4% 69% 55% -4.9%
≤90d 300 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 51% -8.6%
all 300 +5.1% -4.9% 75% 51% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 51% -8.6%
10% -14.0% 29% -17.4%
15% -22.3% 18% -25.4%
20% -29.9% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$120 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$786
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses224 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$465
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage79d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $288 −$288 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 +$18 +77%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $59 +$21 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $182 +$18 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $166 +$34 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $345 +$55 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $371 +$129 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $124 +$76 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$69 +220%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $91 +$34 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $711 −$4 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $72 +$118 +165%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $81 +$69 +85%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $242 +$58 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $182 +$18 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $75 +$25 +33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $71 +$50 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $560 +$40 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $183 −$3 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $263 +$37 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $213 +$87 +41%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $44 +$43 +99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $18 +$30 +169%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $79 +$71 +90%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $84 +$66 +79%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $25 +$75 +300%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $12 +$25 +210%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $779 +$58 +8%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $856 +$44 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $288 +$39 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $288 +$112 +39%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 30 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 30 $219 −$219 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $592 +$108 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $329 +$145 +44%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $475 +$25 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $178 +$122 +68%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $1,054 −$41 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 81¢ $40 13h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $23 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $18 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $25 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $24 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $1 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $2 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $16 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $7 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $4 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $29 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $8 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 72¢ $72 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $120 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $13 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $6 19h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 73¢ $22 36h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 73¢ $37 37h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $182 38h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 23¢ $12 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 31¢ $32 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 83¢ $166 40h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $18 42h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $7 42h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $4 42h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $4 42h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $1 42h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 34¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.25 · official $47.25 (match) · 1656 history records