Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B4 0xb4e9…970c sports 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 742d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-3%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%130W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$84
14 days+$59
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$11
other 17% −$28
crypto 2% −$5
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +27.4% +15.3% 100% 75% +8.5%
≤30d 16 -4.0% -13.1% 69% 50% -4.3%
≤90d 35 +0.3% -9.2% 77% 49% -8.8%
all 184 -7.3% -16.2% 71% 52% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 52% -12.2%
10% -24.2% 35% -20.6%
15% -31.5% 21% -28.2%
20% -38.2% 9% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

742d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses130 / 54
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage742d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina 82¢ 81¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $89 +$10 +11%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $80 +$9 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $77 +$3 +4%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $33 +$44 +134%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $27 +$7 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $21 +$5 +23%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $1 +$1 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $24 −$24 -99%
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda May 22 $16 +$7 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $18 +$1 +3%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $18 −$18 -99%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy May 21 $19 −$19 -99%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry May 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez May 17 $78 +$8 +11%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Lisa Zaar vs Alana Sm May 17 $73 +$3 +4%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li May 17 $21 +$9 +43%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Da May 17 $31 +$11 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 17 $52 +$2 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Paris: Diane Parry vs Alina Charaeva May 16 $22 +$25 +114%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Alana Smith vs Victor May 16 $22 +$3 +15%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Anastas May 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $19 +$2 +9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds May 16 $3 $0 +5%
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles May 16 $3 $0 +6%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 16 $3 +$1 +17%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-18? Apr 29 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $17 +$3 +15%
Will New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw? Apr 19 $18 −$11 -60%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Apr 19 $21 +$6 +30%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 21 $1 $0 +33%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Feb 21 $2 $0 +22%
Nets vs. Magic Feb 21 $2 $0 +24%
Jazz vs. Hawks Feb 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Washington State Cougars vs. Oregon State Beavers Feb 21 $5 $0 +10%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Mavericks Feb 05 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-20? Feb 04 $3 +$1 +28%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Dec 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Villanova Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers Dec 20 $11 +$2 +15%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Devils Dec 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Dec 20 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 82¢ $80 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 90¢ $70 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $89 10h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $89 10h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 90¢ $80 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $80 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 95¢ $77 11h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 42¢ $33 19h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 99¢ $34 19h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $27 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 81¢ $21 6d
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson BUY Xiyu Wang 48¢ $2 10d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Magda Linette 100¢ $2 10d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Magda Linette 57¢ $1 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 59¢ $1 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $1 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $24 11d
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda BUY Tai Leonard Sach 69¢ $16 27d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 97¢ $18 27d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 61¢ $18 28d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy BUY Camila Osorio 72¢ $19 28d
Paris: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry BUY Madison Keys 87¢ $86 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $86 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 90¢ $78 31d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Lisa Zaar vs Alana Sm SELL Lisa Zaar 100¢ $76 31d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Lisa Zaar vs Alana Sm BUY Lisa Zaar 96¢ $73 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li SELL Ann Li 100¢ $30 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Da SELL Daria Kasatkina 100¢ $42 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li BUY Ann Li 69¢ $21 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.50 · official $79.51 (match) · 357 history records