Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4e5…b608 crypto 657 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,264 (-21%) realized −$1,264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%231W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day134.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$272
14 days−$333
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$432
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 26% -15.1%
≤30d 657 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 25% -16.0%
≤90d 657 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 25% -16.0%
all 657 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 25% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 25% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 16% -24.1%
15% -33.2% 11% -31.4%
20% -39.7% 9% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses231 / 426
Open positions0
Markets (closed)657 / 657
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day134.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 657 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$6 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records