Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4e0…9718 other 32 markets active 3d ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$1
other 16% −$2
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -3.2% -12.5% 59% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage450d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $12 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $1 $0 -35%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 27 $1 $0 +5%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $36 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records