Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4df…a609 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 27% −$11
sports 12% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage129d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $167 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $446 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $163 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $212 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $387 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $176 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $189 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $328 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $395 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $427 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $429 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $474 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 13 $360 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $34 6h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 6h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 30h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 30h
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $34 19d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 20d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 20d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $210 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $210 25d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 25d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 26d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $212 26d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $212 27d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $180 27d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $180 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $200 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 29d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $155 29d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $155 29d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $182 29d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $182 29d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 30d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $185 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.99 · official $18.99 (match) · 382 history records