Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4dc…585e other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$2
economics 7% −$8
culture 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage127d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $270 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $439 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $399 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $319 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $521 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $330 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $274 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 07 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $914 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $412 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $374 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 11h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 12h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 14h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 15h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $48 17h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 18h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $49 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 23h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 25h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 27h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 29h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 30h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 31h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $36 36h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $36 37h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 39h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 40h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 42h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 44h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.15 · official $48.15 (match) · 1354 history records