Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4db…73f8
finance · 31 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$51 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$100
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage221d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+113%)
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Card) Michael Aswell 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa South Africa 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Pacers May 12 $5 +$1 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Mar 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Mar 19 $1 $0 +15%
Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager? Mar 19 $1 $0 +37%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 03 $1 $0 +5%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jan 03 $1 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 03 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% $0
finance 7% −$46
other 3% −$1
sports 2% −$9
world 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 25d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 49¢ $3 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $6 25d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 31d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY 76ers 89¢ $5 63d
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca BUY Michael Aswell 36¢ $5 85d
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa BUY South Africa 25¢ $5 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 85d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $5 85d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 77¢ $5 85d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 85d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil BUY Yes 97¢ $1 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 86% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.4% 80% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 26 -43.9% -49.3% 46% 15% -18.7%
all 29 -37.7% -43.7% 52% 21% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 21% -18.5%
10% -49.0% 7% -26.3%
15% -54.0% 3% -33.5%
20% -58.5% 0% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.96 · official $99.85 (match) · 54 history records