Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb4da…b45e sports 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$306 (+112%) realized +$321 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$317
other 30% −$8
crypto 24% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +376.2% +330.8% 100% 100% +330.8%
≤90d 3 +58.7% +43.6% 33% 33% +246.2%
all 3 +58.7% +43.6% 33% 33% +246.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.6% 33% +246.2%
10% +29.9% 33% +213.1%
15% +17.3% 33% +182.8%
20% +5.8% 33% +155.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +283% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +283% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$339 vs −$11 · ×30.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.39 per $1 lost it wins $15.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$321
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage64d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $80 $72 −$8 (-9%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $58 $51 −$7 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $90 +$339 +376%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.18 · official $128.18 · 16 history records