Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4d3…f03f crypto 2154 markets active 5d ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$473 (-3%) realized −$473 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%1262W / 702L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day94.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,162
7 days−$933
14 days−$683
30 days−$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$711
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 42% -59.2%
≤30d 1964 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 60% -12.4%
≤90d 1964 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 60% -12.4%
all 1964 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 60% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 60% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 52% -20.7%
15% -22.6% 41% -28.4%
20% -30.2% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$473
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1262 / 702
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1964 / 2154
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day94.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1964 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records