Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb4d2…fa62 other 91 markets active 1d ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,703 (+1%) realized +$8,996 · open −$293
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate74%64W / 23L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$8,070per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$15,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$224
14 days+$560
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% +$3,692
politics 21% +$2,103
crypto 9% +$978
other 5% +$1,124
world 1% +$559
tech 1% +$149
weather 0% +$162
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.1% +6.9% 82% 45% -10.6%
≤30d 33 +2.1% -7.7% 58% 39% -9.3%
≤90d 33 +2.1% -7.7% 58% 39% -9.3%
all 87 -2.0% -11.3% 74% 22% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 22% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 16% -17.1%
15% -27.6% 10% -25.1%
20% -34.7% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$4,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$76 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.39 per $1 lost it wins $6.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$15,219
Realized+$8,996
Unrealized−$293
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses64 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)87 / 91
History coverage654d
Avg bet$8,070
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15,404 $15,100 −$304 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $62 $54 −$8 (-14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $21 $34 +$13 (+64%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $32 +$6 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $190 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $887 +$162 +18%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 22 $1,520 −$574 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,500 +$1 +0%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $155 +$64 +41%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $33 +$8 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 18 $1,910 +$33 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$20 +228%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $12,938 +$62 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $301 −$155 -51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $24,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,842 −$71 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 +$11 +30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$34 -64%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +200%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,025 +$499 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $185 +$212 +115%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$19 -34%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $405 +$95 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $586 +$28 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $979 +$123 +13%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $47 −$45 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $3,835 +$161 +4%
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 05 $399 −$171 -43%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $10,886 +$44 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 10? Dec 11 $10,875 +$11 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $10,809 +$65 +1%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Dec 09 $10,808 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $29,688 +$716 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Nov 10 $3,580 +$20 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1 Nov 09 $109 −$13 -12%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $6,105 +$29 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $99,979 +$301 +0%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $9,997 +$918 +9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $28,272 +$266 +1%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 18 $41,707 +$281 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Aug 01 $20,995 +$235 +1%
Israel strike on Iran on June 15? Jul 22 $46 −$26 -56%
Israel strike on Iran on June 18? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 17? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 16? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY 81¢ $10 27h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $112 37h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 89¢ $191 37h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $637 39h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $81 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $41 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $165 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $41 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $409 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $342 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $41 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $41 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $493 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $41 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $84 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $120 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $18 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $84 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $41 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 39¢ $945 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $486 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,219.48 · official $15,219.48 (match) · 663 history records