Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4d2…ce99
sports · 405 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,645 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$445 · open +$2,718
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$94,664
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$2,718
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses136 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,890
Open positions237
Markets (closed)279 / 405
Avg bet$693
Trades / day2016.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 237 History 279 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$445
7 days−$445
14 days−$445
30 days−$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Daniil Medvedev 87¢ 86¢ $11,457 $11,290 −$166 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Under 74¢ 81¢ $8,448 $9,288 +$840 (+10%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 74¢ 82¢ $4,635 $5,200 +$565 (+12%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Under 93¢ 95¢ $4,205 $4,311 +$106 (+3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 78¢ $3,776 $4,048 +$272 (+7%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 75¢ 79¢ $2,853 $3,010 +$157 (+5%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $2,730 $2,700 −$30 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 5¢ 39¢ $306 $2,602 +$2,296 (+751%)
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 62¢ 68¢ $2,331 $2,557 +$226 (+10%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,573 $2,548 −$25 (-1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $2,100 $2,475 +$375 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Elena Rybakina 78¢ 44¢ $3,900 $2,225 −$1,675 (-43%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Under 92¢ 94¢ $2,028 $2,091 +$63 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,011 $2,025 +$14 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 80¢ $1,789 $1,824 +$36 (+2%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,461 $1,453 −$8 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 85¢ $1,314 $1,378 +$65 (+5%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,329 $1,343 +$14 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 20¢ 40¢ $606 $1,209 +$603 (+99%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 37¢ 35¢ $1,238 $1,182 −$56 (-5%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 62¢ 81¢ $896 $1,169 +$273 (+30%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 36¢ 19¢ $2,037 $1,078 −$960 (-47%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 71¢ 96¢ $715 $972 +$257 (+36%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 96¢ 99¢ $925 $950 +$25 (+3%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Under 37¢ 40¢ $829 $896 +$67 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $703 +$50 +7%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic Jun 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $198 +$336 +170%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $233 +$77 +33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $561 +$126 +22%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 12 $234 +$416 +178%
Set 1 Winner: McNally vs Sierra Jun 12 $39 +$25 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $886 +$141 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,620 −$123 -8%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $390 −$143 -37%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $38 +$25 +66%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $85 +$181 +212%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $495 −$495 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $106 −$68 -65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,022 −$21 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1,739 +$269 +16%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $1,940 +$567 +29%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $4,744 +$125 +3%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Brasilia: Nicolas Oliveira vs Salvador Price Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $231 +$16 +7%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $160 +$27 +17%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $214 +$363 +170%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $189 +$28 +15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $368 −$69 -19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $297 +$22 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Patrik Schick: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $0 $0 +56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $753 +$1,459 +194%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $234 $0 -0%
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists Jun 12 $217 −$217 -100%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$823
other 15% +$1,449
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 7¢ $12 1m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 7¢ $8 1m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 7¢ $18 1m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 12¢ $6 2m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 41¢ $10 3m
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 100¢ $387 4m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 67¢ $232 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $208 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $6 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $162 4m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 49¢ $25 5m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 49¢ $131 5m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 46¢ $5 6m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 46¢ $5 6m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 47¢ $115 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 6¢ $65 7m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $13 10m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 8¢ $47 15m
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 43¢ $357 20m
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists BUY No 85¢ $44 23m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 84¢ $722 26m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi SELL Brazil 100¢ $205 40m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $50 52m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $534 55m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $311 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $237 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato SELL Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 100¢ $550 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $551 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 98¢ $40 2h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato SELL Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 100¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 38% -9.7%
≤30d 279 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 38% -9.7%
≤90d 279 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 38% -9.7%
all 279 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 38% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2016.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 38% -9.7%
10% -22.5% 30% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -30.0% 22% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 18% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,664.50 · official $94,647.66 (match) · 3500 history records