Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4ce…49e0
weather · 208 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$644 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$644 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses113 / 95
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage23d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$77
14 days−$79
30 days−$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$34 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$4 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $126 −$97 -77%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $121 −$93 -77%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $36 +$25 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 +$9 +55%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $122 −$7 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$115 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$17 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $59 +$19 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 −$33 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $75 +$21 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 −$13 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$9 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$14 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$6 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $42 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $192 −$35 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 −$22 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $11 +$2 +19%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $43 +$19 +45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $6 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $53 +$21 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $105 +$43 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 55% −$312
sports 45% −$332
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 88¢ $79 6m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 83¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 72¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 70¢ $66 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $3 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 8¢ $2 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 6¢ $1 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 6¢ $1 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 86¢ $18 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 86¢ $42 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 40¢ $8 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $27 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $11 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 33% -11.8%
≤30d 208 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 38% -15.0%
≤90d 208 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 38% -15.0%
all 208 -5.4% -14.4% 54% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 38% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 25% -23.2%
15% -30.0% 15% -30.6%
20% -36.9% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1078 history records