Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4cd…61b1 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$3
world 29% −$7
politics 16% $0
economics 6% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 5 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 7 -3.1% -12.4% 14% 0% -12.5%
all 50 +0.2% -9.3% 26% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage475d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $27 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $32 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 −$4 -13%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 01 $16 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jul 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $15 $0 +3%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $15 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say "Milady" during Crypto Summit on Friday? Mar 11 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $29 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $26 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $26 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $21 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $6 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $4 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $25 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $29 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $7 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $19 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $26 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 31d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 347d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $4 347d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $4 347d
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 347d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 347d
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 347d
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 347d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.20 · official $26.20 (match) · 129 history records