Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B4 0xb4c9…a49f crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$140 (+11%) realized −$313 · open +$453
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$902
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +26.7% +14.6% 43% 43% +63.2%
≤30d 14 +26.7% +14.6% 43% 43% +63.2%
≤90d 14 +26.7% +14.6% 43% 43% +63.2%
all 14 +26.7% +14.6% 43% 43% +63.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.6% 43% +63.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.6% 43% +47.6%
15% -6.4% 43% +33.3%
20% -15.6% 43% +20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +112% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$25 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,035
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$453
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)14 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 18¢ 50¢ $60 $169 +$109 (+182%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 34¢ 50¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 8¢ 50¢ $20 $129 +$109 (+543%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 25¢ 50¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 31¢ 50¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 33¢ 50¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 34¢ 50¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 14¢ 50¢ $21 $72 +$51 (+243%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 39¢ 50¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 24¢ 50¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+106%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 34¢ 50¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 31¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$114 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$73 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$123 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$171 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$79 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,034.63 · official $1,034.63 (match) · 48 history records