Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4c8…5707
crypto · 19 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 39¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 33% -5.8%
≤30d 18 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 18 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 33% -5.8%
all 18 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 33% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 33% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 28% -14.8%
15% -36.1% 22% -23.0%
20% -42.3% 22% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.96 (match) · 65 history records