Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb4c6…b6d0 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$4
politics 18% −$6
sports 10% −$53
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -4.2% -13.3% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 116 -4.2% -13.3% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 6% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 5% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage92d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $141 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $299 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 17 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $242 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $490 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $235 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 28 $231 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $249 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $484 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $455 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $509 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 24h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 25h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 40h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 46h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $141 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 13d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 14d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.66 · official $32.66 (match) · 344 history records