Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4c5…378a sports 256 markets active 8h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,839 (+0%) realized +$3,748 · open −$1,909
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%157W / 96L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$1,784per market
Trades / day82.5pace
Fees−$4,477est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,193
7 days−$953
14 days−$5,631
30 days+$1,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$5,853
politics 11% +$69
world 8% −$1,681
other 2% −$1,435
finance 1% −$2,186
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +7.9% -2.4% 52% 41% -12.2%
≤30d 210 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 42% -9.3%
≤90d 253 +2.5% -7.3% 62% 42% -9.0%
all 253 +2.5% -7.3% 62% 42% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 42% -9.0%
10% -16.1% 28% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.2% 22% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$508 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$5,114
Realized+$3,748
Unrealized−$1,909
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses157 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$4,477
Open positions5
Markets (closed)253 / 256
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$1,784
Trades / day82.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $6,611 $4,958 −$1,653 (-25%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $313 $104 −$209 (-67%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $89 $49 −$40 (-45%)
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 21¢ 2¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $205 +$295 +144%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $788 −$788 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $1,255 −$255 -20%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $205 −$205 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $650 −$650 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $136 +$829 +609%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,820 +$15 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $378 +$51 +14%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $430 +$70 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $479 −$294 -61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,030 +$613 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $7,399 +$272 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $55 −$47 -86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $6,412 −$1,226 -19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $245 +$255 +104%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $180 +$320 +178%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $884 +$116 +13%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $823 −$322 -39%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $635 +$185 +29%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $1,239 +$123 +10%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $1,449 +$747 +52%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $255 +$114 +45%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $507 −$474 -93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $625 −$625 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $2,411 +$124 +5%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,732 +$770 +44%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $200 +$50 +25%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $351 +$7 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,720 +$280 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $660 −$660 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,974 +$536 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $300 +$199 +66%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $548 −$48 -9%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,064 −$417 -39%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,567 +$541 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $580 −$580 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $892 +$836 +94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $112 +$137 +122%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $290 −$290 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $177 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $19 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $592 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $925 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $698 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,296 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $54 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $680 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $2 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $67 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $354 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $68 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $401 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $358 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,678 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $314 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,114.42 · official $5,064.32 (match) · 3500 history records