Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B4 0xb4c5…f3be sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,541 (+26%) realized +$5,040 · open −$499
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$299est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,403
7 days+$2,134
14 days+$971
30 days+$5,002
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.5% +3.6% 60% 50% +11.8%
≤30d 16 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 50% +17.8%
≤90d 16 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 50% +17.8%
all 16 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 50% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 50% +17.8%
10% -8.9% 50% +6.5%
15% -17.7% 44% -3.7%
20% -25.8% 44% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,114 vs −$717 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5,040
Unrealized−$499
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$299
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Luca Castelnuovo 32¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $709 +$518 +73%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $1,009 −$46 -5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $1,124 +$1,282 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $2,061 +$650 +32%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $1,180 −$1,158 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $594 −$579 -97%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $597 −$584 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $626 +$741 +118%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,194 +$1,310 +110%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1,180 −$1,162 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,170 +$694 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $419 −$408 -98%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $2,469 +$2,922 +118%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Philip Henning Jun 04 $1,106 −$1,083 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $1,204 +$1,906 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Luca Castelnuovo 32¢ $510 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $1,227 1h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez SELL Juan Bautista Torres 67¢ $963 1h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 69¢ $1,009 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 46¢ $1,124 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 57¢ $709 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 34¢ $3 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 47¢ $873 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL David Goffin 52¢ $854 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL David Goffin 51¢ $20 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 69¢ $1,185 8h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 36¢ $5 3d
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 36¢ $1,176 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 11¢ $4 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 11¢ $590 4d
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 33¢ $3 5d
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 29¢ $594 5d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Martina Trevisan 49¢ $9 6d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 46¢ $9 6d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $1,368 6d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ $626 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $2,504 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 46¢ $4 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 47¢ $1,191 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 50¢ $3 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 50¢ $1,177 11d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $1,864 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 62¢ $2 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 62¢ $1,167 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 14¢ $419 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.78 (match) · 41 history records