Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4c2…e741 crypto 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-12%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%117W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$25
14 days−$152
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -3.9% -13.1% 43% 43% -19.0%
≤30d 344 -19.9% -27.5% 34% 34% -23.7%
≤90d 344 -19.9% -27.5% 34% 34% -23.7%
all 344 -19.9% -27.5% 34% 34% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 34% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 32% -31.0%
15% -40.8% 31% -37.6%
20% -46.6% 31% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses117 / 227
Open positions0
Markets (closed)344 / 344
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 344 Trades
no open positions (214 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +132%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +140%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +137%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +107%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +155%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +134%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 580 history records