Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4c2…f88b weather 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate83%44W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 51% -11.0%
≤30d 53 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 51% -11.0%
≤90d 53 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 51% -11.0%
all 53 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 51% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 51% -11.0%
10% -19.3% 9% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses44 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 84¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 83¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$10 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $23 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 65¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 44¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $13 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $21 16h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $13 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.80 · official $38.80 (match) · 114 history records