Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4c0…22eb sports 669 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$395 (-3%) realized −$395 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%306W / 363L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Fees−$318est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$230
14 days−$1,675
30 days−$700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$619
crypto 8% −$62
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 33% -34.5%
≤30d 647 -12.0% -20.4% 45% 36% -14.3%
≤90d 669 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 37% -13.9%
all 669 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 37% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 37% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 29% -22.1%
15% -33.4% 21% -29.7%
20% -39.9% 16% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses306 / 363
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions0
Markets (closed)669 / 669
History coverage50d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 669 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye Jun 17 $1 +$1 +45%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $5 −$3 -50%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $4 +$6 +133%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $2 +$2 +82%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $2 +$2 +103%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $4 +$5 +116%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1 +$4 +349%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1 +$5 +418%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $2 +$2 +99%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $1 −$1 -39%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $3 +$1 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $2 −$2 -74%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $2 +$2 +80%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $7 +$2 +23%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $1 $0 -31%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $6 +$6 +102%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $8 +$3 +35%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $8 +$4 +52%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $12 −$5 -47%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $6 −$3 -50%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $7 +$13 +202%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye SELL Shiyu Ye 21¢ $2 33m
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye BUY Shiyu Ye 14¢ $0 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye BUY Shiyu Ye 14¢ $0 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye BUY Shiyu Ye 14¢ $1 1h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami SELL Ilia Simakin $1 11h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 15¢ $3 11h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami SELL Ilia Simakin 18¢ $2 11h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 20¢ $2 12h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw SELL Eliakim Coulibaly 35¢ $10 12h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 52¢ $5 12h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 54¢ $5 12h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 14¢ $1 13h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 12¢ $1 13h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 17¢ $2 13h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 21¢ $1 13h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 38¢ $4 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Sara Bejlek 73¢ $4 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Sara Bejlek 35¢ $2 14h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao BUY Xinyu Gao $1 14h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 20¢ $2 14h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao BUY Xinyu Gao $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 18¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 21¢ $2 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk SELL Angelina Voloshchuk 45¢ $9 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Angelina Voloshchuk 20¢ $4 15h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 19¢ $2 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 22¢ $2 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 22¢ $3 16h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 38¢ $6 16h
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet BUY Maxime Janvier 13¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2600 history records