Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4c0…0721 tech 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-3%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate92%154W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$120
tech 22% −$6
crypto 19% +$3
sports 10% +$43
finance 9% +$4
world 6% +$19
politics 3% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 74 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 1% -6.8%
all 167 -1.0% -10.4% 92% 11% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 11% -12.1%
10% -19.0% 10% -20.5%
15% -26.8% 5% -28.2%
20% -34.0% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses154 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)167 / 170
History coverage552d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $88 +$3 +3%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $19 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $24 $0 +2%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $98 +$5 +5%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $600b on April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $100 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $310 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 05 $84 +$1 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $78 +$18 +24%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the April Meeting? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.28 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 100¢ $10 6m
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $10 28d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 28d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 30d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 32d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 97¢ $88 37d
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $98 41d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 41d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $1 45d
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 45d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 46d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 47d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 50d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 51d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 51d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $3 58d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $84 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.25 · official $153.25 (match) · 544 history records