Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb4c0…f333 world 95 markets active 9h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12,035 (+35%) realized +$11,929 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate60%49W / 33L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$6,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$306
7 days+$164
14 days+$4,134
30 days+$11,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$4,009
politics 15% +$516
crypto 14% +$6,899
other 13% +$250
sports 3% +$24
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 33% -4.1%
≤30d 32 +87.1% +69.2% 56% 44% +52.2%
≤90d 78 +37.3% +24.3% 59% 32% +37.2%
all 82 +35.1% +22.2% 60% 32% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.2% 32% +36.9%
10% +10.5% 23% +23.8%
15% -0.2% 18% +11.9%
20% -10.0% 17% +0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$76 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.64 per $1 lost it wins $5.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$6,619
Realized+$11,929
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses49 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions13
Markets (closed)82 / 95
History coverage111d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $2,893 $3,287 +$394 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 85¢ $996 $952 −$44 (-4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $674 $707 +$33 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $707 $370 −$338 (-48%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 86¢ $219 $265 +$46 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $132 $227 +$95 (+72%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $195 $205 +$10 (+5%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $182 $193 +$12 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $170 $165 −$6 (-3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $79 $103 +$24 (+31%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $38 $52 +$14 (+37%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 71¢ 100¢ $31 $43 +$12 (+40%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 29¢ 1¢ $164 $6 −$158 (-96%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $1,577 +$256 +16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 25 $694 +$50 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $477 −$142 -30%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $281 −$98 -35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $143 +$278 +194%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $512 +$11 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,091 +$3,298 +107%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $268 −$268 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $103 +$468 +456%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $53 +$276 +524%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $160 −$132 -82%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $466 +$26 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $222 −$147 -66%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$7 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,587 +$250 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $97 −$97 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3,623 +$6,369 +176%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $121 +$29 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $814 +$491 +60%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $17 +$3 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $322 −$8 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $765 +$1,473 +192%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $80 +$32 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $76 −$76 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $77 −$35 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $860 −$476 -55%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $59 +$14 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $11 +$6 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $136 −$117 -86%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1,307 +$25 +2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $273 −$183 -67%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $46 +$121 +259%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $68 +$4 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $284 +$64 +22%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $478 −$76 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $224 −$107 -48%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $81 −$53 -66%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $179 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $191 −$52 -27%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $429 −$106 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $102 +$6 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $156 −$9 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $744 9h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 14h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $63 38h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $74 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,619.27 · official $6,619.29 (match) · 1524 history records