Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4bf…eab4 crypto 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,593 (-14%) realized −$2,576 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%82W / 144L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$18
14 days−$513
30 days−$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$1,632
crypto 41% −$1,285
other 10% +$44
tech 1% −$92
politics 0% −$63
economics 0% −$30
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 40% -13.6%
≤30d 80 -16.7% -24.7% 40% 35% -29.0%
≤90d 164 -13.4% -21.7% 38% 35% -25.6%
all 226 -11.6% -20.0% 36% 32% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 32% -26.2%
10% -27.7% 28% -33.3%
15% -34.7% 24% -39.7%
20% -41.1% 22% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$45 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2,576
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses82 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage200d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 40¢ 56¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 48¢ 2¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$98 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $121 −$114 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $79 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$64 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $85 −$81 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 23 $245 −$235 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 23 $145 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 23 $36 +$46 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 23 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 23 $37 +$63 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 23 $36 +$45 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 23 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 23 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 23 $157 +$64 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 23 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 23 $26 +$112 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 23 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 23 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 23 $36 +$38 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $93 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $121 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $136 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $72 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $72 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $71 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.56 · official $39.56 · 568 history records