Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb4bd…f540 sports 524 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,316 (-4%) realized −$1,316 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%301W / 223L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$6
14 days−$34
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,562
crypto 24% −$281
other 6% −$270
economics 2% +$166
world 2% +$329
politics 0% +$52
culture 0% −$20
tech 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.6% +6.4% 67% 67% -11.9%
≤30d 53 +7.6% -2.7% 64% 55% +0.6%
≤90d 101 -1.1% -10.5% 60% 50% -11.6%
all 524 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 47% -13.2%
10% -26.4% 36% -21.5%
15% -33.6% 25% -29.1%
20% -40.1% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$42 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses301 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)524 / 524
History coverage401d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 524 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 15 $11 +$9 +84%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$13 -75%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 14 $35 +$36 +103%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$29 +82%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $35 +$16 +44%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 09 $71 −$70 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $40 +$31 +78%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mi Jun 05 $35 −$35 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $106 +$56 +52%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 05 $21 +$21 +99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. May 31 $71 −$70 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants May 31 $18 −$17 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. May 30 $107 +$76 +70%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $72 +$31 +43%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 29 $76 +$6 +8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $72 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $12 −$5 -42%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $18 −$12 -66%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Bo May 28 $179 +$103 +58%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $179 +$28 +16%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N May 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks May 27 $143 +$111 +78%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 May 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. May 27 $36 +$37 +103%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 26 $21 +$23 +107%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $139 +$9 +7%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. May 25 $15 +$13 +88%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $36 +$13 +37%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Ba May 25 $36 +$28 +78%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ba May 25 $18 +$15 +81%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los May 24 $33 +$27 +81%
Inter Miami CF leading at halftime? May 24 $35 −$3 -7%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals May 24 $72 +$26 +36%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v May 24 $35 +$30 +84%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $18 +$1 +5%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $71 +$35 +50%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $277 +$31 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 22 $47 −$46 -96%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $55 −$7 -13%
Will Racing Club vs. Caracas FC end in a draw? May 22 $49 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 22 $24 +$25 +102%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $72 −$48 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY No 54¢ $20 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY No 53¢ $11 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $11 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo SELL No 99¢ $0 29h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo SELL No 99¢ $71 29h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 48¢ $35 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec SELL Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $51 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 68¢ $35 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY No 44¢ $71 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY No 53¢ $101 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. SELL No 99¢ $70 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 55¢ $40 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mi BUY No 53¢ $35 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $61 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $35 10d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v BUY No 49¢ $21 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 60¢ $101 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $71 11d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. BUY No 49¢ $71 15d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 45¢ $18 15d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 46¢ $18 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. SELL No 99¢ $183 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1200 history records