Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4bc…e613 crypto 357 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-7%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate66%236W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$29
14 days−$57
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -13.6% -21.9% 62% 46% -24.2%
≤30d 357 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 42% -17.1%
≤90d 357 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 42% -17.1%
all 357 -9.5% -18.1% 66% 42% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 42% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 27% -25.0%
15% -33.1% 15% -32.3%
20% -39.6% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses236 / 121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)357 / 357
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 357 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records