Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B4 0xb4bb…2054 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$4
world 22% +$25
sports 12% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 40% +15.1%
≤30d 5 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 40% +15.1%
≤90d 5 +38.5% +25.3% 60% 40% +15.1%
all 14 +19.7% +8.3% 71% 57% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 57% +6.2%
10% -2.1% 36% -4.0%
15% -11.5% 21% -13.2%
20% -20.2% 14% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage257d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$85 +278%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$10 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? Oct 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $28 +$6 +23%
Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? Oct 11 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Italy win on 2025-10-11? Oct 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? Oct 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? Oct 11 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? Oct 10 $39 +$61 +156%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 68¢ $41 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 253d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 253d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 253d
Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 253d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 255d
Will Germany win on 2025-10-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 255d
Will France win on 2025-10-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 255d
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 255d
Will Italy win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 255d
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 255d
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 255d
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 255d
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 255d
Will Italy win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 255d
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 255d
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 255d
Will Italy win on 2025-10-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 255d
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 255d
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 255d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 256d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? BUY No 27¢ $42 256d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-10? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.38 · official $115.38 (match) · 31 history records