Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4ba…4ced world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$177 (-2%) realized −$658 · open +$481
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$666
14 days−$315
30 days−$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$354
other 10% +$137
finance 4% +$6
politics 2% +$14
sports 2% +$9
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.9% -47.4% 25% 12% -97.6%
≤30d 30 -25.9% -32.9% 40% 23% -24.0%
≤90d 52 -11.7% -20.1% 54% 40% -23.3%
all 52 -11.7% -20.1% 54% 40% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 40% -23.3%
10% -27.7% 33% -30.6%
15% -34.7% 21% -37.3%
20% -41.1% 13% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$52 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$5,268
Realized−$658
Unrealized+$481
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions40
Markets (closed)52 / 92
History coverage73d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $300 $359 +$59 (+20%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 78¢ 91¢ $283 $333 +$50 (+18%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 73¢ 84¢ $240 $276 +$36 (+15%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 53¢ 64¢ $200 $243 +$43 (+22%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 77¢ 92¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+20%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 90¢ 99¢ $210 $231 +$21 (+10%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 81¢ 92¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $208 $218 +$10 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 87¢ 91¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 90¢ $100 $201 +$101 (+101%)
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? No 88¢ 92¢ $176 $185 +$9 (+5%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? No 60¢ 91¢ $121 $182 +$61 (+50%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $180 $132 −$47 (-26%)
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? No 73¢ 84¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $101 $107 +$6 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 76¢ 78¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $620 +$348 +56%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $557 −$137 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $400 −$137 -34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $200 −$68 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $200 −$43 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$7 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $165 +$38 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $257 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? Jun 10 $100 −$48 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 10 $201 +$5 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $252 −$22 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $219 +$81 +37%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $36 +$15 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $30 +$11 +35%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $3 +$2 +80%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $1 $0 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $10 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 2d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $100 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $100 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $100 2d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $54 3d
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $65 4d
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $44 4d
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $20 4d
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $28 5d
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $10 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,267.83 · official $5,267.24 (match) · 245 history records