Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4b5…1bd4 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$113 (+7%) realized +$41 · open +$72
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$55
sports 5% −$2
crypto 5% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -17.3% -25.2% 28% 28% -18.3%
≤30d 29 -17.3% -25.2% 28% 28% -18.3%
≤90d 29 -17.3% -25.2% 28% 28% -18.3%
all 29 -17.3% -25.2% 28% 28% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 28% -18.3%
10% -32.3% 28% -26.1%
15% -38.9% 24% -33.2%
20% -44.9% 17% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)29 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $79 +$29 (+58%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $59 $72 +$13 (+21%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $13 $45 +$32 (+247%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $23 $42 +$20 (+86%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $34 $39 +$4 (+13%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $39 $32 −$6 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $8 −$13 (-62%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$164 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 −$9 -9%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 +$31 +56%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$6 -15%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $217 −$32 -15%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$10 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $136 +$75 +55%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $6 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$17 +104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$15 +182%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 +$15 +39%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -9%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$5 -9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +43%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 25m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 30m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $40 41m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $87 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $87 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $95 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $111 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $112 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $85 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $118 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $54 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $185 15h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 15h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 25h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 25h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $210 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $210 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $7 28h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 28h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.73 · official $422.98 (match) · 84 history records