Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4b2…23fd politics 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,434 (+35%) realized +$2,428 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate43%34W / 45L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$9
14 days−$194
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$2,803
other 17% −$278
weather 11% +$18
crypto 10% −$119
sports 5% +$15
world 0% −$17
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 17 -12.6% -20.9% 82% 0% -27.0%
≤90d 24 -10.6% -19.1% 71% 8% -3.4%
all 79 -16.7% -24.6% 43% 13% +24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 13% +24.5%
10% -31.8% 8% +12.6%
15% -38.4% 6% +1.7%
20% -44.5% 4% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$18 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$2,428
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses34 / 45
Open positions9
Markets (closed)79 / 88
History coverage238d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 99¢ 97¢ $148 $145 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $91 $97 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 05 $459 −$196 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 31 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 14 $1,371 −$16 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $932 +$416 +45%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 12 $35 +$38 +110%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $5 −$1 -20%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 30 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +34%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Mar 06 $20 +$1 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $26 +$3 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 12 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $175 −$22 -13%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 03 $39 −$30 -76%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 02 $12 −$6 -52%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 02 $10 −$6 -66%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 02 $6 −$2 -45%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 02 $17 −$5 -27%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 01 $31 −$14 -46%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Feb 01 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Feb 01 $6 −$2 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 1PM ET Nov 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 9PM ET Nov 22 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on Nove Nov 22 $1 −$1 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 6PM ET Nov 20 $120 −$77 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 5PM ET Nov 20 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $128 −$106 -83%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? Nov 18 $26 −$11 -40%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025? Nov 18 $58 −$45 -78%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025? Nov 18 $8 −$5 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $68 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 99¢ $148 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $67 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $49 21h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 21h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $42 27h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 28h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 42h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $20 42h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $22 42h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $17 42h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.90 · official $444.90 (match) · 356 history records