Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4b1…f648 other 8 markets active 4d ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-60%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.0% -68.4% 33% 0% -70.3%
≤30d 4 -73.8% -76.3% 25% 0% -78.7%
≤90d 8 -37.2% -43.2% 50% 25% -65.1%
all 8 -37.2% -43.2% 50% 25% -65.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 25% -65.1%
10% -48.6% 25% -68.4%
15% -53.6% 25% -71.5%
20% -58.1% 0% -74.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage56d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? May 02 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 9d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 50d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 56d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records