Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4b0…cba0 weather 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%52W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% $0
crypto 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 52 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 52 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3,648
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses52 / 0
Open positions67
Markets (closed)52 / 119
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $600 $600 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $484 $484 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $428 $428 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $245 $245 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $186 $186 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $184 $184 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 23? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 8m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 12m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $120 13m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 15m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $120 28m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 30m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $120 43m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 45m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $120 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $128 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $150 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $150 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,648.28 · official $3,648.28 (match) · 341 history records