Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb4b0…e14c world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,674 (+9%) realized +$3,542 · open +$132
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%29W / 21L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$782per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,852now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2,810
14 days+$2,660
30 days+$3,695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$4,320
politics 40% −$701
crypto 5% −$58
other 3% +$21
economics 3% +$79
weather 0% −$50
sports 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.3% +7.9% 78% 56% +23.1%
≤30d 14 +9.8% -0.6% 71% 57% +13.7%
≤90d 33 -25.9% -33.0% 48% 36% +9.0%
all 50 -16.6% -24.6% 58% 32% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 32% -1.8%
10% -31.8% 16% -11.2%
15% -38.4% 14% -19.8%
20% -44.4% 10% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,156) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$86 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$1,852
Realized+$3,542
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses29 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage262d
Avg bet$782
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 90¢ $1,500 $1,655 +$155 (+10%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $70 −$41 -58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,000 +$708 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,900 +$657 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1,163 +116%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,800 +$274 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $800 +$28 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $100 −$17 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $4,678 +$664 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,503 +$319 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $150 +$69 +46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $500 −$12 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $300 +$61 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 15 $80 −$8 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $1,200 +$178 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $128 −$62 -48%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $10 −$5 -53%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $300 +$43 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,488 +$140 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,359 +$130 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 20 $1,000 +$359 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 6? Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? Apr 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 04 $437 −$161 -37%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 04 $1,139 −$1,035 -91%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 30 $1,212 +$105 +9%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Nov 17 $897 +$56 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $977 +$21 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 12 $974 +$3 +0%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $50 +$28 +56%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $50 +$29 +59%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "China" 4+ times during C5+1 Summit on Nove Nov 09 $50 +$10 +19%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 04 $1,159 +$7 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 31 $1,156 +$3 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,075 +$81 +8%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 08 $1,082 +$115 +11%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 07 $4,044 −$85 -2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 05 $4,002 +$43 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 01 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $204 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $200 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1,500 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,708 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,355 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,163 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $900 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,000 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,000 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $2,074 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $828 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $800 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $800 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $20 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $1,220 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $25 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $50 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,000 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $983 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2,000 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 56¢ $50 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 55¢ $50 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 44¢ $50 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $83 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,822 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $100 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $76 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,851.86 · official $1,870.15 (match) · 210 history records