Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4ad…5403 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$153 (-9%) realized −$81 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$69
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$198
crypto 3% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.8% -31.9% 60% 40% -26.3%
≤30d 16 -24.3% -31.5% 50% 31% -22.2%
≤90d 16 -24.3% -31.5% 50% 31% -22.2%
all 16 -24.3% -31.5% 50% 31% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 31% -22.2%
10% -38.0% 19% -29.7%
15% -44.0% 12% -36.5%
20% -49.5% 0% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)16 / 39
History coverage12d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $197 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $172 $102 −$69 (-40%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 87¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-9%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$9 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $24 +$3 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 −$34 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $87 +$6 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 +$7 +9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$34 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $19 +$9 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 −$5 -21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$16 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$42 -35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $239 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 30h
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 78¢ $15 30h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 34h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 34h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $29 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $87 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $76 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 6d
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 9d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 9d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $99 10d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $180 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $78 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $120 11d
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 11d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $84 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.56 · official $656.56 (match) · 62 history records