Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4ad…92e0 sports 14 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$155 (-61%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-74.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -71.5% -74.2% 14% 14% -66.3%
≤30d 14 -71.5% -74.2% 14% 14% -66.3%
≤90d 14 -71.5% -74.2% 14% 14% -66.3%
all 14 -71.5% -74.2% 14% 14% -66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.2% 14% -66.3%
10% -76.7% 14% -69.5%
15% -78.9% 14% -72.5%
20% -81.0% 14% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $41 −$24 -58%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $33 +$22 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $12 +$11 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $6 31h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $35 32h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $7 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $9 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $33 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $14 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $3 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $12 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $5 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $3 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $7 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $25 5d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $15 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $12 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $48 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records