Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb4ac…f7c0 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+5%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 241d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$10
crypto 38% −$12
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.5% -0.0% 75% 75% -12.9%
≤30d 8 +10.5% -0.0% 75% 75% -12.9%
≤90d 8 +10.5% -0.0% 75% 75% -12.9%
all 9 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 67% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 67% -15.5%
10% -19.6% 44% -23.5%
15% -27.4% 22% -30.9%
20% -34.5% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage241d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.59 · official $85.46 · 17 history records