Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4ab…31f0
crypto · 25 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$95 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$91 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $204 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $204 +$68 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$113 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$43
other 12% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 6¢ $10 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 5¢ $10 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 4¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $244 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $71 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.1% -1.3% 81% 52% -3.9%
≤30d 21 +9.1% -1.3% 81% 52% -3.9%
≤90d 21 +9.1% -1.3% 81% 52% -3.9%
all 21 +9.1% -1.3% 81% 52% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 52% -3.9%
10% -10.7% 38% -13.1%
15% -19.3% 24% -21.5%
20% -27.3% 14% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.32 · official $59.31 · 55 history records