Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb4aa…f4e5 sports 589 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$249 (-4%) realized −$258 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%303W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$224
world 12% −$8
other 5% −$37
weather 2% −$20
crypto 1% +$26
economics 0% −$4
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -26.1% -33.2% 24% 24% -3.8%
≤30d 74 -23.4% -30.7% 26% 26% -10.5%
≤90d 487 -2.9% -12.2% 58% 58% -9.4%
all 566 -5.2% -14.2% 54% 54% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 54% -13.6%
10% -22.4% 53% -21.8%
15% -29.9% 51% -29.4%
20% -36.8% 37% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses303 / 263
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions22
Markets (closed)566 / 589
History coverage629d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 72¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+104%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 47¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+144%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 43¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+161%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$9 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +456%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.32 · official $62.75 · 1056 history records