trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 29% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 40% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 40% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 30 | -6.1% | -15.0% | 53% | 0% | -12.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.0% | 0% | -12.2% |
| 10% | -23.2% | 0% | -20.6% |
| 15% | -30.6% | 0% | -28.3% |
| 20% | -37.4% | 0% | -35.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 74¢ | $31 | $33 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $31 | +$1 | +5% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $29 | +$1 | +3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | -27% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 28 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu released from custody in March? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Canada election called by Sunday? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Mar 22 | $2 | $0 | -23% |
| Will Trump say "Fart" during Digital Asset Summit? | Mar 21 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Wofford vs. Tennessee | Mar 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 19 | $29 | −$16 | -55% |
| Epstein files released this week? | Mar 16 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 14 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? | Mar 13 | $30 | $0 | +1% |