Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4a8…e02b world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$4
other 23% −$16
politics 10% −$1
sports 6% −$1
tech 4% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 29% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.7%
all 30 -6.1% -15.0% 53% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -12.2%
10% -23.2% 0% -20.6%
15% -30.6% 0% -28.3%
20% -37.4% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage466d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $31 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $1 $0 +2%
Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu released from custody in March? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +4%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 22 $13 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $2 $0 -23%
Will Trump say "Fart" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $11 $0 +1%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $29 −$16 -55%
Epstein files released this week? Mar 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $31 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $32 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $6 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $24 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $23 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $14 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $4 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $25 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $29 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.56 · official $32.56 (match) · 92 history records