Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb4a6…faf4 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$435 (+62%) realized +$436 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$129
sports 32% +$2
other 20% +$43
world 6% −$18
finance 5% +$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+62.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 100% +4.4%
≤30d 1 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 100% +4.4%
≤90d 2 +41.0% +27.6% 100% 100% +35.1%
all 19 +80.0% +62.9% 37% 32% +48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.9% 32% +48.1%
10% +47.3% 26% +33.9%
15% +33.1% 26% +21.0%
20% +20.0% 26% +9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +147% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$32 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$436
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage113d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 21¢ 20¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$8 +15%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $100 +$67 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 Winner Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $34 +$276 +811%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $50 +$75 +150%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Feb 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $25 +$366 +1463%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 23 $12 +$25 +211%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $23 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $59 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 10¢ $167 89d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $20 93d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 27¢ $20 93d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 94d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 98d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 99d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $50 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 77¢ $310 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $0 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $20 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 10¢ $18 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $22 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 28? BUY Yes 4¢ $33 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 110d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 110d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 110d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 110d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 110d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 110d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 110d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 110d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 110d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.48 · official $21.48 (match) · 65 history records