Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4a6…fe82
world · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage521d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 +$4 +10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $166 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $27 −$3 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 +$3 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $50 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $53 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $81 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $46 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $518 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $229 −$1 -0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Dec 07 $3 +$2 +64%
UC Riverside vs. UC Davis Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Jan 22 $8 $0 -1%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump declare a national emergency on his first day? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1? Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? Jan 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump's inaugural address be 16-18 minutes? Jan 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Jan 20 $1 +$7 +563%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% −$1
world 33% +$3
sports 15% −$5
economics 5% $0
politics 5% +$1
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $12 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $30 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $7 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $32 14h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $2 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $3 19h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 42h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $15 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $24 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $9 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $35 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 9% -8.9%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 37% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 26 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 4% -9.4%
all 37 +3.8% -6.1% 41% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 8% -9.6%
10% -15.1% 8% -18.3%
15% -23.3% 5% -26.2%
20% -30.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records