Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb4a3…343c other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$71 (+7%) realized +$72 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$3
sports 14% +$10
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.2% -5.7% 76% 48% -8.8%
≤30d 21 +4.2% -5.7% 76% 48% -8.8%
≤90d 21 +4.2% -5.7% 76% 48% -8.8%
all 21 +4.2% -5.7% 76% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 48% -8.8%
10% -14.7% 24% -17.5%
15% -23.0% 24% -25.5%
20% -30.5% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$3 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $67 +$34 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$5 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $42 +$19 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$6 +15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $69 −$36 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 +$3 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$7 +11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $57 +$5 +9%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $54 +$2 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$9 +38%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 +$2 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$7 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$12 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $57 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $57 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $60 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $51 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $66 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $61 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $37 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $69 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $62 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $57 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $54 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $19 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $24 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 7d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $54.86 (match) · 44 history records