Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4a1…b6d5 weather 361 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%337W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$39
14 days+$58
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 271 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 356 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 0% -10.0%
all 356 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1,149
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses337 / 19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)356 / 361
History coverage56d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $446 $447 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $443 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $323 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $397 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $389 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $394 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $604 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $93 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $17 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $24 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $80 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $80 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,148.90 · official $1,148.90 (match) · 1073 history records