Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4a0…993d weather 929 markets active 1d ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$814 (-10%) realized −$814 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%461W / 468L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$19
14 days+$17
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$391
weather 30% −$39
other 9% +$45
world 8% +$37
politics 4% +$24
culture 1% +$5
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.4% +10.7% 83% 42% +12.9%
≤30d 80 +8.8% -1.6% 80% 32% -3.2%
≤90d 351 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 22% -10.7%
all 929 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 28% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 28% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 22% -21.7%
15% -28.0% 19% -29.2%
20% -35.1% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$814
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses461 / 468
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)929 / 929
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 929 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$6 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 16 $14 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 8? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 8? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 8? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 31? May 31 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? May 31 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? May 31 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$4 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 22? May 29 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29? May 29 $4 +$3 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $10 −$4 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $12 32h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 49¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records