trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1,751 | $949 | −$802 (-46%) |
| Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1,495 | $16 | −$1,479 (-99%) |
| Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $998 | $0 | −$998 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? | Jun 10 | $132 | +$14 | +11% |
| Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic | Jun 10 | $840 | +$406 | +48% |
| Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | May 19 | $1,108 | +$914 | +82% |
| Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? | May 13 | $1,922 | +$730 | +38% |
| Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09? | May 06 | $1,804 | +$96 | +5% |
| Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois | Mar 18 | $811 | +$1,017 | +125% |
| Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin | Mar 17 | $1,000 | −$190 | -19% |
| Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? | Mar 10 | $998 | −$998 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +29.6% | +17.3% | 100% | 100% | +29.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +44.9% | +31.1% | 100% | 100% | +37.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +41.6% | +28.2% | 86% | 71% | +26.0% |
| all | 8 | +23.9% | +12.1% | 75% | 62% | +11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +12.1% | 62% | +11.4% |
| 10% | +1.4% | 50% | +0.7% |
| 15% | -8.4% | 50% | -9.0% |
| 20% | -17.4% | 25% | -17.9% |