Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4a0…870b other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 22% −$18
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$6
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage136d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $689 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $759 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $728 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $243 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $738 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $352 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $527 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $701 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $774 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $496 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $572 −$4 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 5h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 12h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 23h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 24h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 32h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 33h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 35h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 36h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $57 38h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 46h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.24 · official $56.24 (match) · 1400 history records