Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb49f…12e6 other 471 markets active 34d ago coverage 150d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,636 (+78%) realized +$28,568 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%205W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 150d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$4,662
sports 25% −$1,356
culture 21% +$35
politics 5% −$73
economics 2% −$4
tech 2% −$267
world 0% −$21
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +649.2% +577.9% 71% 71% -76.4%
≤30d 27 +161.3% +136.5% 81% 30% -46.9%
≤90d 100 +32.1% +19.5% 67% 19% -23.9%
all 467 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 12% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 12% -25.7%
10% -29.7% 10% -32.8%
15% -36.5% 9% -39.3%
20% -42.8% 7% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$49 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$28,568
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses205 / 265
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions109
Markets (closed)470 / 471
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 109 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 66¢ 99¢ $38 $57 +$19 (+50%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No 69¢ 52¢ $69 $52 −$17 (-25%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 36¢ 43¢ $31 $37 +$6 (+20%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 2¢ 81¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+3735%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? No 31¢ 72¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+134%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 7¢ $-0 $14 +$14 (-145655%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? No 67¢ 32¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-51%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 93¢ 76¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+15313%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+12306%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+12306%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 79¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $-0 $3 +$3 (-28224%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 25¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+581%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Yes -0¢ 5¢ $-0 $2 +$2 (-13003%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $-0 $2 +$2 (-21974%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+6291%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $-0 $2 +$2 (-19891%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $-0 $2 +$2 (-19891%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1459%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+5539%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 20 $0 +$5 —%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 20 $0 +$9 +2493%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 20 $0 +$5 —%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Jun 20 $0 +$5 +86097%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 20 $0 +$49 —%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 20 $2 +$7 +442%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $148 −$144 -97%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? May 31 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $41 +$10 +25%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $163 −$155 -95%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 31, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 25 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 23, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 30, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 25 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 25, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 27, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 26, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026? May 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 May 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 U May 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most council seat elections in the May 14 $60 $0 +0%
First Blood in Game 2? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? May 06 $178 +$2 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Ja May 06 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $197 +$4 +2%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $118 +$132 +112%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $254 +$31 +12%
Francavilla: Ryan Seggerman vs Yannick Alexandrescou May 06 $3 +$2 +54%
Istanbul: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Tereza Martincova May 06 $36 −$21 -60%
Istanbul: Lina Gjorcheska vs Xinran Sun May 06 $5 +$18 +376%
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3? May 06 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 34d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 91¢ $71 34d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 34d
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY No 65¢ $13 40d
First Blood in Game 2? BUY GIANTX 1¢ $0 42d
First Blood in Game 2? BUY GIANTX 1¢ $0 42d
First Blood in Game 2? BUY GIANTX 1¢ $0 42d
First Blood in Game 2? BUY GIANTX 1¢ $0 42d
First Blood in Game 2? BUY GIANTX 1¢ $0 42d
First Blood in Game 2? BUY GIANTX 1¢ $0 42d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 49¢ $5 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Hugo Dellien vs Jesper de BUY Jesper de Jong 37¢ $19 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Hugo Dellien vs Jesper de BUY Jesper de Jong 44¢ $44 45d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 45d
Brazzaville: Luis Britto vs Blaise Bicknell BUY Luis Britto 7¢ $4 45d
Istanbul: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Tereza Martincova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 93¢ $13 45d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Diaz 35¢ $7 45d
Francavilla: Ryan Seggerman vs Yannick Alexandrescou BUY Ryan Seggerman 65¢ $3 45d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 86¢ $86 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Titouan BUY Patrick Kypson 74¢ $74 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Titouan BUY Titouan Droguet 58¢ $58 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Hugo Dellien vs Jesper de BUY Hugo Dellien 32¢ $32 45d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $38 45d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $97 45d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 45d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 4¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.89 · official $390.14 (match) · 3500 history records