Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb49e…6117 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$157 (+0%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%65W / 8L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$210
crypto 3% −$16
sports 0% −$38
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.9% +2.2% 100% 50% -6.6%
≤30d 2 +12.9% +2.2% 100% 50% -6.6%
≤90d 6 +3.7% -6.1% 83% 17% -10.8%
all 73 -4.8% -13.8% 89% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -9.1%
10% -22.1% 3% -17.8%
15% -29.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$32 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses65 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage708d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $7 +$2 +26%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $3,257 −$162 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $3,251 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $3,235 +$16 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Apr 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 February 2-8? Feb 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 2-8? Feb 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 09 $3,330 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 7? Feb 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.20 on February 7? Feb 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 08 $3,200 +$97 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 07 $1 $0 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $30? Feb 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $225? Feb 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $370? Feb 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $3,150 +$29 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 06 $110 −$36 -33%
Tria FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 06 $10 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 5 Feb 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 5? Feb 06 $34 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 04 $4 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 4? Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 4? Feb 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on February 4? Feb 04 $24 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 04 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on February 3? Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 3? Feb 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 3? Feb 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $3,050 +$119 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $2,945 +$37 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Feb 02 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31? Feb 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 31? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 31? Feb 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 31? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 31? Feb 02 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 33d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $7 33d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3,057 70d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 70d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3,257 70d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,251 71d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3,235 71d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 111d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $25 134d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 BUY No 100¢ $3,330 134d
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $50 134d
Will Solana reach $110 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $6 134d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3,200 136d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $20 136d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.20 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $25 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on February 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $39 136d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $1 137d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $3,179 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 BUY No 100¢ $50 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $21 137d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $370? BUY No 100¢ $14 137d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 5 BUY No 100¢ $30 138d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $34 138d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 138d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $3,150 139d
Tria FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 139d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.81 · official $58.81 (match) · 153 history records