Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb499…0d3a crypto 1352 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$171 (+0%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate93%1254W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$23
14 days−$41
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 21% -11.7%
≤30d 245 +0.1% -9.5% 90% 24% -10.0%
≤90d 1352 +1.5% -8.2% 93% 21% -9.7%
all 1352 +1.5% -8.2% 93% 21% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 21% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 5% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$42 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1254 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1352 / 1352
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1352 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$14 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $13 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $13 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $13 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records